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Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend this week’s BRICS summit in Brazil, for the first time the Chinese leader recalled the gathering of major emerging economies. The sudden decision has made widespread speculation about internal political mobility within China and the horrific harmony of the BRICS.
China’s official explanation – a “schedueling conflict” and the fact that Xi had already met with Brazilian President Luiz Eneasio Lula Da Silva earlier this year, according to the South China Morning Post – has been met with suspicion. Premier Lee will attend the summit in Kiang Xi’s place, recently continuing his performance back to the global stage a tendency of scaling.
“It is not understood,” Gordon Chang said, an expert in the US-China relations. “There are many other countries at the BRICS summit, not only Brazil. For me, it is very important that Xi Jinping is not going.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping hears Vietnamese Prime Minister Fam Minh Chinah, not a picture, in Hanoi, Vietnam, during his meeting on Monday, April 14 at the party Central Committee office in Hanoi, Vietnam. (AP/Minh Hoang)
Brian Bureaurack of the Heritage Foundation agrees that Xi’s absence has underlined deep issues: “This is another sign that BRICS is not going to be China’s global south vassal.” He said that countries like Brazil and Indonesia have recently imposed tariffs on China on industrial overcapacea and dumping, which suggest widespread changes within the group.
“China is actively damaging all those countries for the most part, perhaps with some exceptions, through its deadly business policies and dumping and overcapacea.”
India and global trade pressure can also be causes tension
Some analysts indicate China-India as a contributor to exit the XI’s decision to leave the summit.
“China has been in war with India for decades, essentially,” Bureaurack said. “They are fundamentally opposing opposing interests. It is difficult to see China changing its behavior in the near period, and it will keep stress elevated.”
Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi is expected to play a leading role in the meeting, possibly another preventive for the presence of XI.
Another prominent leader – Russian President Vladimir Putin – is expected to address the group only by video.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, are two prominent leaders of the left, BRICS Alliance. (Sergei Bobilev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo AP)
BRICS: United in Name, Divided into decades-Lumb stresses
BRICS was conceived as a non-western counterweight for the G7 dominance, formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China and subsequently joined South Africa. This has expanded Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE and, recently, to strengthen Indonesia to strengthen its economic footprint.
Economist Christian Brigs exposed extensively of the BRICS: “BRICS now includes 12 full members and 23, when counting partners. Collectively, they eat more than 75% of the world’s more than 60% GDP and more than 75% of the global population. They control the growing natural resources and growing share of global trade flow.”
Nevertheless, despite its scale, the block is ideological and strategically fragmented. “This is a group of countries that hate each other,” Burke clearly said. “China is damaging many of them through unfair trade practices. There is not much encouragement for real unity.”
Currency ambitions and strategic deviation
Alternative payment systems and coalition aspirations to challenge the US dollar through a potential BRICS currency have received media traction – but experts take precautions against reducing this danger.
“A BRICS is very frightened about the currency,” Bureaurack said. “But the interests of these countries are completely distracted. There is more smoke than fire when it comes to the currency challenge for the dollar.”
Chang resonated this skepticism: “The only country that can challenge the dollar is the United States. The dollar is weakness that we are doing domestically, not what the BRICS are doing.”
Nevertheless, the Brigs offered a counterpoint, arguing that the BRICS members are already shaping the global currency flow.
“They are moving away from dollars to digital yuan, rupee, rubles. China has already launched a sharp option adopted by the Caribbean Banking sector – trillion dollars are shifting.”
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South African President Cyril Ramposa, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin posted for a family photo during the BRICS summit in Kazan on 23 October 2024. (Alexander zemlianichenkopool/Afp Getty Image)
Is BRICS still a threat to American influence?
While its harmony is doubtful, BRICS is a long-term challenge for us-especially in areas where Washington has retracted diplomatic and economically.
“China filled the zero left by the US in places like Africa,” Brigs said. “Now it controls about 38% of the world’s minerals. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy has doubled despite sanctions, as they have reduced the dollar dependence.”
Nevertheless, Chang sees India as a break on any invasive western inclination. “BRICS has a ‘I’ and it is India. Modi does not want to be a part of an anti-Western block. As long as India’s BRICS, the rest of the world is safe.”
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India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to play a major role at the summit, possibly another preventive for Xi’s presence. (SIPA via USA AP)
A missed opportunity – or a calculated power trick?
For some, Xi’s No-Sho indicated volatility in Beijing. For others, on the contrary: it shows confidence in China’s dominance over other BRICS members.
“He doesn’t need to be there,” Brigs said. “Xi’s power allows him to represent. China is now trading with about 80% of the world. It is also extending the agenda in absentee.”
It is clear that the bricks continue to develop – its internal contradictions appear as their geopolitical ambitions. Whether the absence of Xi marks a retreat or a renovation is one of the major questions hovering over the summit in Brazil.