When the supreme leader emerges, he will lead a changed Iran

After spending about two weeks in a secret bunker somewhere in Iran during his country’s war with Israel, the 86 -year -old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may be to use the opportunity of ceasefire.

It is believed that in the fear of being murdered by Israel, income has been performed to Holi. Even the top government officials had no contact with him clearly.

They will be advised to be well -wide, despite the brokerage by US President Donald Trump and Qatar’s rich despite the delicate ceasefire. Although President Trump allegedly asked Israel not to kill the supreme leader of Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not rule it.

When – or really – he emerges from hiding, he will see a scenario of death and destruction. He has no doubt that the state claiming victory in the struggle will still be seen on TV. He will plot to restore his image. But he will face new realities – even a new era.

The war has made the country very weak and he is a low man.

During the war, Israel quickly controlled most of Iran’s airspace, and attacked its military infrastructure. Revolutionary guard and top commanders of the army were rapidly killed.

The border of loss to the army is still unclear and disputed, but frequent bomb blasts of the army and revolutionary guard locations and establishments reveal a significant decline in Iran’s military power. The militaryization had long consumed a large amount of country’s resources.

Iran’s known nuclear features that acquired about two decades of American and international sanctions, with hundreds of billions of dollars, now are now Damaged by air attacks, However, it is difficult to assess a full limit.

What was all this, many are asking.

A large number of Iranians would unchangedly organize Ayatollah Khamenei, who first became a leader in 1989, was responsible for installing Iran on a conflict with Israel and America that eventually wasted significantly for his country and people.

They will blame her for furthering the ideological purpose of Israeli’s destruction – some do not support Iranians. They will blame her what they experience as a stupidity – she believes that achieving a nuclear position will make her rule invincible.

The restrictions have crippled the Iranian economy, reduced a top oil exporter and reduced a poor and struggling shade of its former self.

Professor Leena Khatib, a visiting scholar at Harvard University, says, “It is difficult to guess how long the Iranian regime can be under such important stress, but it looks like the beginning of the end.”

“Ali Khamenei is likely to be in full sense of the word Islamic Republic’s last ‘supreme leader’.”

There is a mold of dissatisfaction at the top. At the height of the war, a semi-official Iranian news agency reported that some top former government figures are urging the quiet religious scholars of the country located in the holy city of QOM, who are separated from Ayatollah, to intervene and bring changes to the leadership.

According to Professor Ali Ansari, the founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St. Andrews University, “there will be a record.”

“It is quite clear that there are huge disagreements within leadership, and there is a huge unhappy among the common people.”

During the last two weeks, many Iranians wrestled with the disputed feelings of the need to protect their country, which was his deep hatred towards the regime. He held a rally for the country, not to protect the government, but to take care of each other. There have been reports of huge solidarity and closeness.

Outside the urban areas, people from towns and villages opened their doors for those who flee from bombing in their cities, shopkeepers reduced basic items, neighbors knocked on each other’s door whether they need anything.

But many people also knew that Israel was probably looking for a change of governance in Iran. A governance change is that which is the desire of many Iranians. They can draw the line on a governance change and are imposed by foreign powers.

In its nearly 40 years of its rule, one of the world’s longest autocats, Ayatollah Khamenei has reduced any protest in the country. Opposition political leaders are either in jail or have fled the country. At abroad, opposition figures have been unable to create a stand that units the opposition of governance.

If the opportunity arises, they have been ineffective in the establishment of any equality of the organization capable of handling inside the country.

And during the two weeks of the war, when the collapse of governance could have been a possibility, if the war went out tirelessly, many people believed that the possible landscape for a day was not acquired by the opposition, but the country’s descendants are in chaos and unrighteousness.

“It is unlikely that the Iranian regime will be topped through domestic opposition. The government remains strong at home and will increase domestic harassment to crush domestic harassment.”

The Iranians now fear more clampdown by the government. At least six people have been killed in the last two weeks since the war with Israel began on charges of spying for Israel. Officials say they have arrested about 700 people on this charge.

An Iranian woman told the BBC Persian that she is more afraid of death and destruction than war, a rule that is injured and humiliated that changes anger against her people.

“If the regime is unable to supply basic goods and services, anger and frustration will be increasing,” Pro. Ansari says.

“I see it as a staging process. I don’t see it as something, which is necessary, in a popular sense, the bombing will take root for a long time until the end.”

Some people in Iran think that the ceasefire will run on Monday – and many believe that Israel has not yet ended that Iran has total superiority in the sky.

One thing that has survived the destruction is Iran’s ballistic missile Silos, which Israel found that they were placed in tunnels under the mountains across the country.

The Chief of Staff of the Israeli defense forces, Ile Zameer, said that Israel made his initial attack on Iran, knowing that “Iran had about 2,500 surface surface missiles”. The missiles that Iran fired caused considerable deaths and destruction in Israel.

Israel will be concerned about the remaining 1,500 in the hands of the Iranian side.

Tel Aviv, Washington and other western and regional capitals also have a serious concern that Iran can still run to make an atomic bomb, continue to refuse to do something like that.

Although Iran’s nuclear features were almost certainly set back, and was probably made useless during the bomb blasts by Israel and the US, Iran said that it had shifted its highly rich uranium stockpile to a safe secret place.

According to experts, 60% of the stockpile of uranium, if enriched up to 90%, is a relatively easy step, enough for about nine bombs. Just before the war began, Iran announced that it had created another new secret facility for promotion that was soon to come on the stream.

The Iranian Parliament has voted to reduce its cooperation with the United Nations Atomic Sentinel, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This still requires approval, but if it passes through Iran, the nuclear non-exercise will one step away from exit, NPT-like that of radicals supports the Supreme Leader push to make a bomb for Iran’s breakout.

Ayatolla Khamenei may now be convinced that his rule is survived, that’s all. But at the age of 86 and sick, he also knows that his own days can be counted, and he wants to ensure the continuity of governance with a serial transition of power – another senior cleric or even the leadership council.

In any case, the remaining top commanders of the revolutionary guard who have been loyal to the supreme leader may demand to increase power from behind the curtain.

Top Image Credit: Through Prashant Press Getty

BBC industry The best analysis is home on the website and app, with the latest approach that challenges beliefs and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we also demonstrate thought-respective materials from BBC sounds and iPlayer. You can send us your feedback on Inspth Section by clicking on the button below.