There is a lot of speculation that Iran can retaliate for the US attacks on its nuclear amenities by closing the world’s busiest oil shipping channel, The Straight of Hormuz.
About 20% of global oil and gas flows through this narrow shipping lane in the Gulf. Blocking it will give intensive consequences to the global economy, disrupt international trade and increase oil prices.
It can also increase the cost of goods and services worldwide, and can hit some of the world’s largest economies including China, India and Japan, which are among the top importers of crude oil passing through the Strait.
What is the strainer of hormuz – and where is it?
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important shipping routes in the world, and its most important oil transit is choke point.
Oman and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Iran and South, corridors – which is about 50 km (31 mi) wide on its entrance and exit, and is about 33 km wide at its hesitant point – which is connected to the Arabian Sea.
Strait is enough for the world’s largest crude oil tankers, and is used by major oil and gas producers in the Middle East – and their customers.
According to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 20 million barrels per day in the first half of 2023 passed through Hormuz’s straight – it is about $ 600BN (£ 448bn) energy trade value per year.
This oil not only comes from Iran, but also other Gulf states like Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE.
What will be the effect of closing the straight?
Former UK intelligence agency MI6’s head, Sir Alex Younger, told the BBC that the ongoing Iran-Israel struggle included a blockade at the Hormuz Strait in the landscape of their worst situation.
“Closing the Strait will clearly be an incredible economic problem that will affect the price of oil,” he said.
It will be a “unwanted area”, an assistant professor at Kuwait University, who specializes in the geopolitics of the Arabian Peninsula.
“It will have direct results on world markets, because you are going to see the increase in the price of oil, [and] You are going to see the stock markets, which are very nervous, which is happening, “Mr. Al-Saf told the BBC Newshore.
This definitely, hurts the Gulf countries whose economies depend a lot on energy exports.
For example, Saudi Arabia, according to research by Analytics firm Vortexa – uses a strainer to export about 6 million barrels per day compared to any neighboring country.
According to the International Energy Agency, Iran exports about 1.7 million barrels per day. Iran exported $ 67 billion oil in the financial year ending March 2025 – its highest oil revenue in the last decade – according to the estimates of the Central Bank of Iran.
Asia will also be hit barely. According to EIA estimates, in 2022, about 82% of crude oils and condensed (low-dense liquid hydrocarbons usually occur with natural gas) were bound to Asian countries.
China alone is estimated to buy about 90% oil that Iran exports to the global market.
Any disruption for the time can increase fuel and production costs at a time when China has to rely on manufacturing and exports. This is not just a domestic problem, either: increasing manufacturing costs can eventually be passed to consumers, promoting inflation worldwide.
The impact for other major Asian economies can also be excluded, which are among the largest importers after China. About half of India’s crude oil and 60% of its natural gas imports pass through the strand of hormuz. South Korea allegedly received 60% of its crude oil and about three-fourths of Japan through Strait.
How can Iran turn off Strait?
The United Nations rules allow countries to control 12 knots (13.8 mi) above their coastline.
This means that at its narrower point, Hormuz’s Strait and its shipping lanes lie perfectly within the regional waters of Iran and Oman.
If Iran had to try to block 3,000 or so many ships that depart every month, according to experts, one of the most effective ways to do it would be to laying mines using rapid attack boats and submarines.
Iran’s regular Navy and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) can potentially attack foreign warships and commercial ships.
However, large military ships in turn can become an easy goal for American airstrikes.
Iran’s sharp boats are often equipped with ship anti-ship missiles, and the country also operates a series of surface vessels, semi-subsidized crafts and submarines.
Experts say that Iran may temporarily block the straight, but many people are equally confident that the US and its allies can faster the flow of marine traffic through military means.
America has done so earlier.
In the late 1980s, during the eight-year-old Iran-Iraq War, attacks on oil features increased in a “tanker war”, in which the two countries attacked neutral ships to increase economic pressure.
The Kuwaiti tankers carrying Iraqi oil were particularly weak – and finally, American warships became the largest naval convoy operation since World War II.
Will Iran block Strait?
Media associated with the state said that the Parliament of Iran has approved a proposal to close the Straight of Hormuz. A final decision is with the Supreme National Security Council – the country’s most senior National Security Body, which is run under the aegis of the Supreme Leader.
While Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the waterway in previous conflicts, it has never been followed.
Perhaps the nearest call was during the 1980s tanker war – but still, shipping through the Straight of Hormuz was never severely interrupted.
If Iran survives its danger, this time may be different.
US State Secretary Marco Rubio has claimed that the closure of Iran’s Straight of Hormuz would be “financial suicide”, and Tehran’s colleague to intervene will be called China.
“I encourage the Chinese government to call them in Beijing [Iran] About that, because they depend a lot on the strainer of the hormuz for their oil, “Rubio said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday.
“We keep an option to deal with it, but other countries should also see it. It will make the economies of other countries worse than us.”
Although China is yet to respond, Beijing is unlikely to welcome any increase in oil prices or an increase in disruptions in shipping routes, and may take advantage of its diplomatic weight to prevent the Iranian government from proceeding with the blockade.
Energy analyst Vandana Hari said that Iran has to “lose too much and lose too much from closing the straight”.
Hari told BBC News, “Iran turned its oil and gas -producing neighbors into enemies in the Gulf and invited its major market IRE IRE by disrupting traffic in the Strait.”
Can alternative routes compensate for a blockade?
Hormuz’s frequent threat to shutting down the draftsman, over the years, inspired the oil-export countries in the Gulf region to develop alternative export routes.
According to an EIA report, Saudi Arabia has activated its pre-west pipeline, a 1,200 km long line that is capable of transporting up to 5 meters of barrel crude oil per day.
In 2019, Saudi Arabia temporarily prepared a natural gas pipeline to carry crude oil.
The United Arab Emirates has added its inland oil areas through a pipeline with a daily capacity of 1.5 million barrels from the port of Fujirah in the Gulf of Oman.
In July 2021, Iran inaugurated the Gor -Jask pipeline, aimed at taking crude oil to the Gulf of Oman. This pipeline can currently carry around 350,000 barrels per day – although the report states that Iran is not yet.
The EIA estimates that these alternative routes can collectively handle about 3.5 million barrels of barrels per day – about 15% raw raws are currently sent via Strait.