What is really done for the American economy?

Soon after Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, he began to increase the tariffs warning economists and businesses about the risks of economic damage.

He started with Mexico, Canada and China, then targeted steel, aluminum and cars, and finally in April, which he called “Mukti Day”, launched a blitz of new taxes on goods from countries around the world.

The plans killed the trade and cried the financial markets. But as worries increased, Trump quickly suspended his most aggressive plans to allow for 90 days of interaction.

As the time limit of July 9 is on the July 9 and the President crafts his approach, he will keep an eye on the American economy.

So what is really the effect?

Trump’s plans consisted of 20% tariffs on goods from the European Union, punishing tariffs on 145% items from China, and 46% levy on imports from Vietnam, although on Wednesday he announced a deal that would look at the US charge tariff of 20% on Vietnam.

The US Stock Market faced the most immediate hit, started sliding in February and finally in April, Trump tanking the so -called “liberation day”, after revealing the full scope of his plans.

S&P 500, which tracks 500 of the largest companies in the US, fell about 12% during a week.

But Trump bounced back the shares after withdrawing his plans, instead left the standing tariff in favor of swallowing a 10% rate.

Now, S&P 500 index is about 6% for the year. In the UK and Europe, shares have also turned back.

But tariffs – shares of vulnerable firms, such as retailers and car companies are still in pain – and further risk, as the negotiating deadline approach.

The White House has left its options open, both stated that both the deadline is “not important” and that the President can only present that date “with the deal” to other countries.

Charles Schwab’s main investment strategist Liz Sonders said the rebound suggested “too much decency” among investors, who take the risk of repeating again, Trump should revive the high tariff as they expect.

Trump’s tariff promoted a crowd of goods in the US in the early part of the year, followed by a sharp decline in April and May.

But compared to the same period last year, a little zoom out in the first five months of the year, and US Goods imports were up 17%.

What happens in the next months will depend on whether Trump expands his break – or revives his more aggressive plans, said Benac Hacket of Hackets Associates, which tracks the port traffic for the National Retail Federation.

“At this point it is anticipated by someone,” Sri Hacket said, seeing that now the situation was “in a holding pattern”.

He said, “If the tariff freeze disappears and high tariffs are rebuilt, then almost definitely we are going for a small recession,” he said.

In the US, imported goods are estimated only for 11% of consumer expenses.

Trump and his colleagues have argued that there is a fear that tariffs – which, now, they are about six times more at the beginning of the year – will increase the cost of living for Americans.

He has pointed to the recent inflation figures, showing that consumer prices are rising only 0.1% from April to May.

But some objects, such as toys, very large jumps and many items facing high duties have not yet made it in the shelves.

The firm, especially with strong profits, can choose to pass gradually growth rather than different customers with a sudden jump.

Despite the President’s pressure to “eat tariff”, economists still widely expect customers to eventually pay for them.

“If you are not excavating more in the data you think, from the point of view of inflation,” Ms. Sonders is called ‘here to see anything’. “But at this point the victory is prematurely to hang the banner.”

The economic feeling in the US began to fall early this year, as Trump started determining his tariff plans.

But political views play a big role in shaping the opinion on the economy, so what concerns actually motivate the houses to stop for a long time, the case of debate remains.

Now we are starting to see the signs of pullbacks: retail sales fell 0.9% from April to May, the second month in a line of decline. It was the first back-to-back fall since the end of 2023.

In the first three months of the year, the total consumer spending increased from the fastest rate since 2020, and the most recent month for which data is available in May.

But while the development is expected to be much slower than last year, most analysts say the economy should be able to avoid recession – so until the job market continues.

Although the trimmed notices are more pacing, for now, unemployment is low, at 4.2%. In the last month, the construction of the job continued at the same speed as average in the last 12 months.

Ms. Sonders said, “We are currently in the economy in this stall mode, a kind of weight-end mode, which is inspired by very serious uncertainty and instability in policy,” Ms. Sonders said, seeing that many companies were responding with a self-styled “time-out” on recruitment and investment.

The economy is unlikely to be unheard of, he warned.

“It is difficult to keep a pickup scenario in development from here,” he said. “The question is more, will it just be a soft or a large slide of the economy.”