What do America and Iran do next

For decades, the United States and Iran have carefully avoided crossing a dangerous red line into a direct military confrontation.

One after the other, the US President caught his army back from deploying his army against the Islamic Republic, making the US a potentially the most dangerous arms in the Middle East War.

Now, Commander-in-Chief, who promised to be the president of peace, has crossed this rubikan with direct military attacks on Tehran’s nuclear sites-the most resulting steps so far in the second term of a President that has proud to break all the old rules.

It is an unprecedented moment that provokes alarm in capitals worldwide.

Iran’s next step can be even more important. Its 86-year-old supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who now informs about shelter in a bunker, has cautiously spent almost four decades to play a long game against his most powerful enemy to protect his most important property-Islamic Republic.

If he does very little, he will lose his face; If he does too much, he can lose everything.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program in the think tank of Chautham House, says, “The next tricks of Khameni will be the most resulting not only for their own existence, but also to go down in history.”

“His poison is more powerful than a Khomeini Piya in forty forty-forty,” he continues, referring to Iran’s first revolutionary leader’s untouchable decision to accept a ceasefire in the Iran-Iraq war.

In the last ten days, the acute Israeli strike has caused more damage to Iran’s chain of command and military hardware than its eight -year war with Iraq, which is still a long shadow in the Iranian society.

Israeli attacks have eliminated several in the top rank of Iran’s security forces with major nuclear scientists. America’s entry into this struggle has now increased pressure.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) established after Iran’s 1979 revolution is warning of vengeance against the US that will leave it with “permanent regret”.

But behind a sharp war of words is an immediate calculation to avoid disasters.

“This is not a war that Iran wants,” says Hamidreza Aziz of the Middle East Council on global affairs. “But we are already seeing arguments by supporters, which can be the image of Iran as a strong country, regardless of the real loss limit by the US. [and] As a regional power, dramatically shaken [that] This requires response. ,

However every reaction is risky. One of the approximately 20 American bases in the Middle East will attack a direct attack on one of the more than 40,000 American troops, possibly American vengeance.

The strategic waterway for the fifth of global oil traffic can also be backfire by harassing Arab colleagues in the region, harassing Arab colleagues in the region, as well as harassing the main customer of its oil in China, Iran. Western Naval powers can also be designed to protect this major “choke point” and postponed significant economic shock.

And what Iran believed as its “forward defense” has weakened the curtain and the network of partners in the entire region or erased from Israeli attacks and murders during the last 20 months of the war.

It is not clear that there is an acceptable range for Iran, which can be seen to return the fire without provoking America’s anger, which will allow both sides to pull back from the verge.

This torture relationship was tested at least once ago. Five years ago, when President Trump ordered the murder of IRGC Commander Kasem Solimani with a drone strike in Baghdad, many feared that it would wake up a vicious spiral. But Iran telegraph its counter attack through Iraqi authorities, targeting classes of American bases, who avoided killing American personnel or caused significant harm.

But this moment is far more magnificent.

President Trump, who repeatedly expressed his priority to “make a deal with Iran”, is now firm in the corner of Israel rather than “bombing hell from it”. He described Iran as “the Middle East threatening”, bent on the construction of an atomic bomb – a conclusion that was not shared by the previous American intelligence.

Intelligence teams are now analyzing in detail what the Pentagon states that “the largest B -2 operating strike in American history” was. It “very severe damage and destruction” to the main nuclear sites of Iran in Non, Isfahan and Fordo.

Only “Bunker-busting” bomb A deep burial in a mountain can enter the Fordo feature.

President Trump is now urging Iran to “get into peace”.

But Iran now also sees America’s diplomatic route as a surrender. On Friday, in Geneva, where Foreign Minister Abbas Argchi met his European counterparts, a difficult message was reported that Washington had expected Tehran to reduce his nuclear enhancement to zero.

It is a demand that Iran rejects its sovereign right to enrich uranium as part of a civil nuclear program.

This now considering President Trump’s diplomatic efforts, including his special envoy Steve Witcoff mainly involves five rounds of indirect talks, which are a detailed deception.

Israel removed its military operation two days before the sixth round of talks in Muscat. Two days after President Trump, the US entered the war that he wanted to allow the two -week window to give diplomacy.

Now it says that it will not return to the conversation table while Israel and American bombs are still falling.

“It was not Iran, but the US betrayed diplomacy,” Argchi told a news conference in Istanbul. During this time, he met the foreign ministers of the 57 -member organization of the Islamic Conference, who condemned “the aggression of Israel” and expressed “great concern about this dangerous growth”.

Iran has also tried to highlight an attack against its territory that violates the United Nations as well as a warning from the International Atomic Energy Agency that nuclear features should never be attacked, “whatever reference or circumstances”.

European leaders are also calling for a route to curb the nuclear program of Iran through an immediate de-escation and arbitration, not missiles.

But he also reiterated that Iran could not be allowed to receive atomic bombs. They consider 60% of the 90% of the 90% weapon grade of Tehran’s uranium as an inauspicious sign of its intentions.

Elie Geranmayah, the Deputy Chief of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argues, “Iran has to damage its sites and emphasize in its nuclear program stating that it has survived these unprecedented attacks.”

“America may increase damage, so Trump can claim military victory without dragging further attacks.”

President Trump will be drawn in one direction by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, which will continue to attack Iran, their formidable forces, even more damage, which will still trigger more Iranian salvos.

But American leaders are also coming under pressure from MPs, who say that they worked without the Congress authority, and supporters believe that they have broken their promises to keep America out of long wars.

And this moment is widely expected to focus on the minds of Iran’s staunch decision -makers of how they try to avoid targeting themselves.

“This is a great irony,” Ms. Geranamayah warned. “Although Trump has demanded Iran to abolish the nuclear threat from Iran, he has now made a more likely that Iran becomes a nuclear state.”

Lead image: A protestor holds a portrait of Iran’s supreme leader. Photography Credit: Reuters

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