Texas Hydrologist, who works with the National Weather Service, says that he recognized the situations last Thursday, which could cause horrific floods on the Guadalup river.
And they say, depending on the previous events, such a result was a known risk.
I-Team has learned that hydrologists say their forecasting partners in the National Meteorological Service issued a flash flood watch in some parts of that area 10 hours before the water flows through the camps on the banks of the river, Kill many people And keep others sticking to trees.
“On Thursday, we made a call Yes, it is going to be an incident,” said Jason Johnson, a prominent hygiene at the West Gulf River Forecast Center in Fort Worth. “The most difficult part is that where it is going to rain, it is there.”
Fort Worth Team monitors rivers in western Gulf, including Guadalup.
Do experts call the “flash flood ale”, there is a quick reaction to the rains on the banks of standing slopes, rocky ground and the narrow river, leaving very little time for warnings.
This is known as “Flash Flood Elle …”, it responds very fast, “Johnson said.
Repeat history
I-Team reviewed the National Meteorological Service and Historical Shikha Records and found that the Guadalup River experienced a dozen floods more than a dozen times in the last century.
On July 4, preliminary data suggests that the Gwadalup River in Hunt reached 37.52 feet.
I-Team has learned that the river has increased even more four times since the river trekking started, and it has reached more than 25 feet on 15 other occasions.
These incidents include deadly flash floods, which have taken life, submerged houses and overwhelmed camps.
Hydrologists say there were signs. In 1987, flood waters rose by 31 feet. Ten people including children died after camp buses Caught in the increasing stream.
In 2015, similar deadly floods occurred again. In 1869, Guadalup extended above 40 feet.
“Each event is different,” Johnson said. “But they can all have the same result. You cannot say that it was worse than the other because it affected someone.”
So how can this still happen?
Experts say that the physical risk of growing flood waters is often underestimated.
“Once you get into those types of depth and flow, it is almost impossible to go away,” Johnson said. “Even six inches of water can knock with your feet. Two feet of water can remove a car.”
The hydrologist says that the region has become more densely popular in recent years. Increased appearance, both residential and entertaining, can make it difficult to empty quickly after the water grows.
The hydrologist says that the night of the night may also play a major role. Even when the warning goes out, they are not always received. The phone can be discontinued. People are sleeping.
“The weather is 24/7 … but when it happens overnight, it is difficult to get the messaging out,” Johnson explained. “The message can go out, but do people wake up to achieve it? It is always a difficult part.”
He said: “We can do everything right, and the message goes out, but it is not received. It is a shocking part.”
Despite the tragedy, Johnson said that his team was staff and ready. The forecast models were in place. More scientists were on standby.
“We had our best people on the shift … all were used,” he said.
They also say that some high-risk areas may lack reliable systems to receive warnings, question how to reach people in alert time during such rapid events.
More perspective: Texas Service Storms Association
A spokesperson for the Texas Severe Storms Association told CBS News Texas, “Campsite and houses in high -risk areas such as Hill Country should be transferred to high ground and assets within the flood sector should be used only for day use.”
what comes next
Johnson said that this tragedy would run before others, like others.
“Our mission is the protection of life and property,” Johnson said. “When you hear loss of life, it is very difficult. We all will be rigid on ourselves, asking how we can do better.”
He said that meteorological models have improved since the major floods in 2002, and more updates are going on. New Fldplane Maps, Artificial Intelligence Tools and Enhanced Communication System are all being considered.
What can you do
Authorities always advised to be several ways to get emergency alerts including a portable Weather Radio, enabled a smartphone with alert, and tuned for local news.
If you are camping or living near water in flood-prone areas, learn your escape routes and especially during the storm season.
