OBR says pension triple lock three times the cost for initial estimate

According to the official forecaster of the government, the state pension triple lock costs three times higher than its original estimate by the end of the decade.

The triple lock, which came into force in 2011, means that the state pension increases to either inflation each year, increases wages or 2.5% – whichever is the highest.

The office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) said that the annual cost is expected to reach £ 15.5BN by 2030.

Overall, OBR stated that the UK had “relatively weak positions” due to pressure from recent government U-turns on the UK’s public finance employed spending.

According to the report, at the top of restoring the winter fuel payment for most contenders, the recent reversal of the welfare bill, according to the report, has contributed to continuous increase in government loans.

It states: “Efforts to keep Britain’s public finance on more sustainable ranks have only met with limited and temporary success in recent years, after the shock, the loan has also increased and has increased to borrow as governments have reversed the plan to strengthen public finance.

“Planned tax growth has been reversed, and, more importantly, the cuts in planned expenses have been abandoned.”

The spending on state pension has increased continuously, OBR said, as the triple lock and the increasing number of people above the state pension age were contributing to the cost.

It states: “Due to inflation and earning instability in its first two decades in operation, the cost of triple lock has cost about three times higher than the early expectations.”

The UK’s state pension is the second largest item in the government budget after health.

In 2011, the Conservative-Liberal Democrat alliance was introduced into the triple lock so that the price of the state pension does not move beyond the cost of life or work or the income of working people.

Since then, the non-Kamai-Juda element of the lock has been “triggered in eight out of the 13 years”, OBR told,

This was because inflation “has become much more unstable than expected”.

In April 2025, the earning link meant that the state pension increased by 4.1%, leaving it:

• One week for £ 230.25 full, New flat-rate state pension (For those who reached state pension age after April 2016) – £ 472 in a year
• One week for £ 176.45 full, Old original state pension (For those who reached the age of state pension before April 2016) – an increase of one year £ 363

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said that the labor government will keep triple lock by the end of the current Parliament.

However, that manifesto has been promised before and after that, there has been a thorough debate on the cost of triple lock and is it appropriate.

Last week, the influential institute for fiscal studies, an independent economic think-tank, suggested that the triple lock be scattered as part of the wider overhaul of the pension.

It argued that it should increase according to prices, but the cost should be linked to the target level of economy-wide average income.

Pensioner groups say that many older people face high life costs and require triple lock protection to avoid falling in financial difficulty, especially because the amount actually paid was far from the most generous state pension in Europe.