BBC verify
Russia has doubled the number of drones and missiles fired towards Ukraine since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, a BBC verified analysis found, despite their calls for a ceasefire.
In 2024, the former President Joe Biden’s attacks were already growing, but in November, after Trump’s election victory, they climbed fast. Since he returned to the office in January, the air strikes recorded from Moscow have reached their highest level of war.
During his campaign, Trump vowed to bring the end of fighting in just one day when he returned to the office. During his 2024 campaign, he claimed that a full -scale invasion on Russia’s Ukraine could be postponed, a president who honored the “respected” office by Kremlin.
However, in his efforts to achieve a ceasefire, he has been accused of taking favor to Russia by critics, and his administration has stopped delivery of air defense mons and other military supply in Ukraine on two different occasions.
It was announced in March and July and since the President’s reverse – Russia continuously increased missile and drone production. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, ballistic missile construction in Russia increased by 66% in the last one year.
Based on data reviewed by BBC Verifai – based on the daily incident reports released by the Ukrainian Air Force – Russia launched 27,158 sages between January 20 – when the presidential post began – and 19 July, compared to 11,614 in the last six months of Biden, compared to 11,614.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said in a statement to BBC Verifai, “This cruel war that was brought by Biden’s disability, and it has gone for a very long time.”
“President Trump wants to stop the murder, which is why he is selling American-made weapons to NATO members and threatening Putin with tariffs and cutting restrictions if he does not agree to the ceasefire.”
In the early weeks of the new administration, the White House released a series of hot statements, intending to woo President Vladimir Putin towards a settlement. During this period, Russian attacks on Ukraine fell briefly than the last weeks of the biden administration.
But until February, when American diplomats led by state secretary Marco Rubio met the delegation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavarov for a summit in Riyadh, the attacks started climbing again.
Dialogue, which Rubio said that there was an initial point to end the war, after that it has been done. Arbitration discussion between Ukrainian and Russian officials In Türkiye.
At the beginning of last month, attacks occurred when Moscow launched 748 drones and missiles towards Ukraine on 9 July, according to Ukrainian Air Force data. There were more than a dozen people Allegedly injured by barrage and two killed,
While Trump has expressed anger over the growing Russian attacks on many occasions, his growing frustration has not affected Moscow’s strategy.
On 25 May, Russia launched its then recorded barrage, causing Tram to angrily: “What happened to him [Putin],
Since then, Russia has crossed the number reported on 14 occasions. Trump replied that he has demanded Kremlin arrives at a peace agreement with Ukraine by 8 August,
The number of Russian sages entering Ukrainian air rescue is increasing, with explosions around the capital Kiev, the residents of the city have become a daily part of life.
Dasha Volk, a journalist living in the city, told the BBC’s Ukraincast program in June, “Every time you fall asleep, don’t you know if you are going to wake up the next morning, and this is not just a common way,” Dasha Volk, a journalist living in the city, told the BBC’s Ukrarencast program in June.
“Every time you hear an explosion or a missile flying on your head, a lot of thoughts are going through my mind – I am going to die now, such things.”
Ukraine ‘weak’ for air strikes
Chris Cons, a senior Democrat Senator at the American Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that the BBC verified that the decision to suspend arms supply on two occasions and his comprehensive approach to Russian relations would have assured Kremlin to assure the Kremlin that there was freedom to increase the attacks.
He said, “It is clear that Putin feels affected by Trump’s weakness and has increased his vicious attack on Ukrainians, repeatedly attacking hospitals and maternity wards, Ukrainian power grids and other civilian sites,” he said.
Increasing attacks have renewed calls to the US to send fresh supply of Patriot anti-air battery to Ukraine. Patriots are the most capable and expensive air defense systems with Ukraine. Each Patriot battery costs around $ 1bn (£ 800m), and each missile costs approximately $ 4m.
Trump has overturned the previous supply and has agreed to sell weapons to NATO members, which in turn will supply them to Kiev. Trump means that the deal will include the latest supply of Patriot battery.
Justin Bronch, an analyst focusing on the Russian army at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), said that the ban on the supply of military equipment installed by the White House had made Ukraine “weak” for missiles and drone attacks.
But he also noted that Russia has increased the domestic manufactured version of the production of missiles and the so -called ‘Kamikes’ drones such as Geran -2 -Irani Shahd drone. Mr. Bronch said that Russia’s increased stockpiles, in collaboration “, had encouraged Moscow to carry forward their air campaign in association with the” significant cut “in the supply of US interceptor missiles.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Agency (HUR) recently told domestic media that Russia was now producing 85 ballistic missiles per month in April 2024 to 85 ballistic missiles.
Russia is allegedly producing 170 geran drones per day, which has established a large -scale manufacturing facility in Albuga in the south of the country.
In a recent interview with Russian military TV, the director of the convenience Timur Shagivalev claimed that Albuga became the “largest fighter drone production plant in the world”, saying that his activists were initially producing nine times more units than expected.
Satellite images suggest that this feature has expanded considerably since mid -2010, with many new warehouses built on the site.
Other structures, including activists, are under construction, under construction.
The Senator Cons warned that an increase in production meant that Washington should make it clear that it is not preparing to walk away from the struggle as some administration officials have threatened that they can do, emphasizing that peace can only be obtained through “security aid”.
He said that President Trump should make it clear for Russia that it cannot “just try to push the West”.
“To do this, he needs to maintain a consistent and constant position on war.”
Meanwhile, Ms. Volk said that every day the Russian campaign and Ukrainian obstruction falls on public morale.
“People are tired of these attacks, they really affect our lives,” he said.
“We know what we are fighting for, but it becomes more difficult every year because everyone gets tired. This is reality.”