Since Donald Trump took over for his second term, his job rating is clearly rejected – And more with young people than any other age group. So many young Americans have changed their mind so soon?
For reference, election performance with President Trump’s electoral performance with under 30 voters improved a lot in 2024: while he lost the group from former Vice President Kamala Harris, it was a much less difference than in 2020. And men under the age of 30 divided equally between Trump and Harris equally. These trends motivated some observers to explain how conservative general Z has become, especially young men, and to surprise whether it marks a durable change.
Nearly half a year from the inauguration day, many youth have changed their views on Trump. It seems that many young voters gave him the benefit of doubt when he took over, but his evaluation quickly drowned. Among Americans aged 18-29, their job approval rating has exceeded 55% He was then inaugurated Now 28%. This means that half of their pre -approval has now been rejected. In percentage-point words, the size of that drop is more than twice the size of what we have seen in another age group.
Which young voters are closed?
Among the young people, it is less biased and politically engaged that has seen the most drops. For example, in February, Sri Trump had almost half of them under 30, but it has now fallen on one in about five. The same is true about the youth who did not vote in the 2024 election. The party’s identifier and ’24 voters have also fallen, but not to the same extent.
There are also differences by gender, young men started more approval of Mr. Trump than young women. The President’s women’s ratings had already taken a dip marchWhile it was not till then april – And the recession in the US stock market – that the ratings of young men started declining. The two have fallen continuously since then, but a sharp decline among young men in the last few months means that the gender difference in the approval of Shri Trump has shrunk. (See below this article for statistical details on estimating these small subgroups.)
CBS News Polling In the last few months, many clues provide that young people are sad about these days.
The majority now says that Mr. Trump is doing different work compared to promising during the 2024 campaign. This is a reversal in the spirit from the beginning of February, when seven of the seven said that he is doing what he said that he would do. And these are young men who are most likely to flip on this question.
At its top, the administration is experiencing less points on many economic evaluation:
- The share of young people is saying that the economy is deteriorating, 10 out of 10 has increased. And young Americans are less likely than older people to see the job market. Above TimeYoung people have rated it as fair or very bad.
- Six in 10 also told us that the policies of Mr. Trump are making him financially worse. This is the highest that we have seen till date, and it represents a complete change that young people expected when inaugurated. back thenThey were more likely to say that their policies would make them better.
- And the prominence feels that the Trump administration is focusing too much on the abolition of tariffs (72%), exile (64%), and DEI programs (55%). These shares have increased considerably over time. Conversely, seven out of the seven say that the administration is not focusing enough on reducing prices, which was an important campaign issue.
Looking back and further…
Instead of marking a permanent correct change, Shri Trump’s better-and-and-intake performance with young voters last year has begun to look like a temporary response. In fact, less biased voters are more responsible for short -term forces, such as economic conditions fired many people in Mattati in 2024. And when Trump was inaugurated, many youth hoped that he would rotate the economy, reflect some optimism with his initial rating. This honeymoon period Quickly fadedHis 18-29 ratings are now under the biden When he left the post,
Given further for 2026, Republican’s electoral success may depend on both the number of Presidents and the youth voting. If the idea of dealing with Mr. Trump’s job does not improve in next year, he can draw one on GOP Congress candidates. And while young voters are less likely to exit in non-presidential years, both 2018 and 2022 midtarms saw the record numbers in elections, including elections under 30 voters. In fact, in 2022, in 2022, Young voter At a rate that Closed To save the majority of Democrats. In a tight competition, they can be decisive again.
Estimation of small subgroups in elections
To more accurately estimate the approval among young people, I collected my elections and ran a statistical model that controls the response’s race, education level, 2024 votes and survey date.
Why take this approach? All elections have a margin of error, and as a function of sample size and regular load, the margin of error for subgroups within the pole is higher. Therefore, even though young people are represented in proportion to their part of the population, it comes with a high margin of error, guessing what percentage of the president is naturally approval. It is inspired by random variation what types of youth respond to a given survey, and as a margin of error you slices the data more thinly – for example, in separating young people by gender.
Since a single pole can only do this, we can add data to elections to promote sample sizes and gain confidence in our estimates. The collected surveys give sample size less than 30 to analyze more than 1,200 men and 1,300 females sample size. And the model smooth the pole-to-polls within these subgroups.
Model estimated For any time point, continuous universal survey is within the limit of data, usually within some points. And the important thing is that they tell the same story: Trump’s young men and young women’s views have deteriorated, and gender differences have decreased.
